Sun, C and Xu, J (2011) Estimation of time for wenchuan earthquake reconstruction in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 137(3), pp. 179-187. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Time is considered extremely urgent in China's Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction. However, little research has been undertaken on estimating the time needed for reconstruction in China, especially for this specific reconstruction. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the time-cost relationship for the Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction. Both the Bromilow's time-cost (BTC) model and the Elman network (EN) model have been developed to predict the time of Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction projects. Data have been obtained from 72 completed construction projects in the six cities that were seriously affected by the major Wenchuan earthquake. The result from the BTC model has been compared with that from the EN model to determine which one is more accurate. The results show that the EN model provides a more accurate time prediction for Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction than the BTC model does, though the BTC model is more suitable for application in practice. It is also shown that the proposed models are both useful for estimating the duration of reconstruction projects.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | cost; elman network; project management; regression model; time; wenchuan earthquake reconstruction; wenchuan major earthquake |
| Index terms: | construction project, China, estimating, reconstruction, regression model, Wenchuan earthquake, time prediction, estimation, earthquake, duration, project management |
| Subjects: | operations research, financial and cost management, project controls, building construction, environmental hazards, statistical analysis, production management, Geography, project management theory and practice |
| Topics: | Time Control, Cost Management, Engineering Principles, Geographical Context, Project Management, Research Practice, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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