Yorucu, V (2013) Construction in an open economy: Autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach and causality analysis: case of North Cyprus. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(9), pp. 1199-1210. ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
This study investigates the long-run equilibrium of the construction sector in an open macroeconomy in which the growth rate and money supply (M3) are exposed to exogenous shocks from foreign capital transfers (FCT). Specifically, the study examines the econometric relationship between M3, FCT, gross domestic product (GDP), and the construction value added (CVA), empirically determining the direction of causality among these variables for North Cyprus. Results reveal that M3 and real GDP are significant determinants of a long-run equilibrium relationship with CVA and FCT, reflecting openness of the capital market in North Cyprus. A positive significant relationship is found between M3 and real GDP in the long run. The results also confirm that CVA is indirectly affected by expansion in M3 and the overall GDP growth during 1977-2008. Most empirical studies and modeling of construction engineering and management are micro level. This study breaks new ground as it attempts to analyze the construction industry within a macro and open economy framework. The findings reported here will benefit especially professionals working on international joint ventures (IJV), interested in securing current strategic positions of IJVs within the competitive environment and formulating strategies to be placed in better performing clusters.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | autoregressive distributed lag modeling; bounds test; causality; economic growth; international joint venture performances; North Cyprus; open economy; quantitative methods |
| Index terms: | construction sector, quantitative method, long-run equilibrium, strategy, Cyprus, construction industry, modelling, determinant, economic growth, econometric, empirical study, construction engineering, joint venture, gross domestic product |
| Subjects: | business, risk assessment, economic analysis, analytical methods, data analysis and analytics, research methods, engineering methods, economic development, management, Geography, industry analysis |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Risk Management, Engineering Principles, Geographical Context, Research Practice, Business Strategy |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here