Choi, S; Kim, D Y; Han, S H and Kwak, Y H (2014) Conceptual cost-prediction model for public road planning via rough set theory and case-based reasoning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(1): 04013026, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Long-term transportation policies require government officials to predict the cost of public road construction during the conceptual planning phase. However, early cost prediction is often inaccurate because public officials are not familiar with cost engineering practices, and moreover, have limited time and insufficient information for estimating the possible range of the cost distribution. This study develops a conceptual cost prediction model by combining rough set theory, case-based reasoning, and genetic algorithms to better predict costs in the conceptual planning phase. Rough set theory and qualitative in-depth interviews are integrated to select the proper input attributes for the cost prediction model. Case-based reasoning is then applied to predict road construction costs by considering users' difficulties in the conceptual policy planning phase. A genetic algorithm is also used to assist the rough set model and case-based reasoning model to obtain optimal solutions. The result of the analysis shows that the proposed conceptual cost prediction model is reliable and robust compared to the existing cost prediction model.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | case-based reasoning; conceptual cost prediction; policy making; project planning and design; road construction cost; rough set theory |
| Index terms: | road construction, interview, case-based reasoning, estimating, cost prediction, policy making, rough set, genetic algorithm, project planning, cost engineering, prediction model |
| Subjects: | control systems, prediction and forecasting, data science, algorithms, financial and cost management, cognitive psychology, policy studies, civil engineering, data collection methods |
| Topics: | Engineering Principles, Research Practice, Project Management, Cost Management, Digital Applications, Governance |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here