Choudhry, R M; Aslam, M A and Arain, F M (2014) Cost and schedule risk analysis of bridge construction in Pakistan: Establishing risk guidelines. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(7): 04014020, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
The construction process is inherently prone to risks. Risk management is an essential and integral part of project management on virtually all construction projects. Risk analysis is one of the core components of risk management that enables professionals to quantify and analyze risks that may pose potential threats to project performance in terms of cost, quality, safety, and time. This research was conducted to identify and analyze risks associated with bridge construction in Pakistan. A questionnaire was conducted to collect data. Risks affecting bridge construction project performance were identified through interviews conducted with engineers and managers involved with various bridge projects. Cost and schedule impacts of project risks were supplemented by conducting a case study using the Monte Carlo simulation. The key findings indicate that financial risks were a major factor that affected cost and schedule objectives. The highest ranked factor identified was unavailability of funds with a relative importance index greater than 85. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation were compared to the actual completion times and costs of activities in the case study. In all cases of this comparison, the actual completion date and costs fell within the predicted distribution of the Monte Carlo simulation, indicating that risk analysis can help project managers to manage cost and schedule risks. Additionally, this study provided risk analysis guidelines, which were unclear. The results of this paper can help engineers, cost control managers, and project managers evaluate particular risks on their projects and avoid delays and cost overruns.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | bridge construction; cost and schedule; cost risk; Monte Carlo simulation; risk analysis; risk guidelines; risk management; schedule risk |
| Index terms: | construction process, construction project, Pakistan, cost control, completion time, questionnaire, bridge construction, risk analysis, manager, interview, relative importance index, risk management, project performance, bridge project, project management, project manager, case study, engineer, cost overrun, Monte Carlo simulation |
| Subjects: | practitioner, data collection methods, risk assessment, profession, financial and cost management, modelling and simulation, production management, Geography, project management theory and practice, infrastructure engineering, infrastructure and transport systems, environmental hazards, project controls, building construction |
| Topics: | Roles and Professions, Risk Management, Sustainability, Cost Management, Project Management, Geographical Context, Research Practice, Engineering Principles, Site Management, Time Control |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here