Cirilovic, J; Vajdic, N; Mladenovic, G and Queiroz, C (2014) Developing cost estimation models for road rehabilitation and reconstruction: Case study of projects in Europe and Central Asia. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(3): 4013065, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
This paper presents the development of prediction models for the unit costs of road works that could be applied to strategic planning of road works at the network level. A specialized data set was used, which was generated under a World Bank study that included 200 road work contracts from 14 countries in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and signed between 2000 and 2010. Two techniques were used for model development: multiple regression analysis and artificial neural networks. Classification trees were used as an intermediate step to evaluate the correctness of the selected parameters. A total of 19 variables, divided into three groups (oil-price related, country-related, and project-related variables), were tested for their influence on unit cost of asphalt concrete (AC) and road rehabilitation and reconstruction (RRR) costs. The analysis results showed that the level of corruption and the economic environment in a country have a significant effect on both costs of AC and RRR. The resulting models could be particularly useful for the planning and optimization of work on road networks in ECA countries. However, the approach and methodology used for model developments may be applied generally.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction costs; correlation; cost and schedule; highways and roads; maintenance costs; neural networks; reconstruction; regression analysis; regression models; rehabilitation; statistics |
| Index terms: | construction cost, World Bank, regression model, reconstruction, Europe, case study, statistics, regression analysis, maintenance cost, strategic planning, neural network, prediction model, artificial neural network, cost estimating, multiple regression analysis, model development, unit cost, methodology, Asia, corruption |
| Subjects: | financial management, management, physical geography and landforms, research methods, professional ethics, statistical analysis, building construction, data collection methods, mathematical modelling, artificial intelligence, prediction and forecasting, regions and continents, institutional frameworks, financial and cost management, analytical methods, modelling and simulation |
| Topics: | Governance, Geographical Context, Research Practice, Engineering Principles, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Legal Issues, Digital Applications |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here