Delgado, J M P Q; Ramos, N M M; Barreira, E and Simões, M L (2014) Probabilistic risk assessment methodology of exterior surfaces defacement caused by algae growth. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(12): 05014012, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
This paper presents the development of a risk assessment methodology applicable to the analysis of exterior surfaces defacement from algae growth. The specific case of external thermal insulation composite systems (ETICS) is frequently associated with a higher perceived risk if compared with other façade solutions. The design of the proposed methodology includes: the scope of the risk analysis definition, the determination of the parameters involved using a qualitative analysis of the problem, the collection of relevant data, and a quantitative probabilistic risk analysis based in Monte Carlo simulations. The detailed implementation of the methodology involved the preparation of a meta-model, response surface methodology, that was developed and compared with a hygrothermal simulation tool. The meta-model allowed a faster application of the Monte Carlo method, providing results of the methodology application to the use of ETICS in selected locations and a sensitivity analysis of the stochastic parameters.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | algae growth; construction materials and methods; meta-models; Monte Carlo simulations; risk assessment |
| Index terms: | simulation tool, risk analysis, qualitative analysis, methodology, sensitivity analysis, implementation, construction material, thermal insulation, risk assessment, response surface methodology, Monte Carlo simulation, composite |
| Subjects: | environmental hazards, statistical analysis, research methods, financial risk, building materials, modelling and simulation, analytical methods, energy systems, contractual arrangements, research design and methodology, materials science |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Construction Materials, Engineering Principles, Cost Management, Procurement, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here