Poshdar, M; González, V A; Raftery, G M and Orozco, F (2014) Characterization of process variability in construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 140(11): 5014009, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Variability is a major problem in construction projects. It can negatively affect performance and disrupt production. In the past two decades, a considerable amount of research has been undertaken to select a suitable statistical model that can accurately model this variability. Although the beta distribution has achieved extensive acceptance to model process durations in construction, certain production situations can constrain its modeling capabilities. The limitations are apparent when a coefficient of variation associated with the process variability is higher than 100%. The aim of this research is to explore a reliable probability distribution function that can model the situations in which the beta distribution is not suitable. Data from 73 construction samples corresponding to 25 projects from three different countries were analyzed as a case study by using statistical inference techniques and stochastic simulation. The main finding from this research shows that the Burr distribution was a more accurate statistical function for modeling processes with variability levels between 100 and 150% in comparison to other commonly used distributions. The results enable construction modelers to represent and simulate the process variability with an increased accuracy in a wider range of variability. Accordingly, suitable production strategies can be designed to cope with variability in construction.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | variation, construction project, accuracy, variability, modelling, duration, statistical model, probability distribution, case study, production strategy |
| Subjects: | data collection methods, data science, analytical methods, manufacturing engineering, production management, contractual condition, professional development, project controls, statistical analysis |
| Topics: | Project Management, Research Practice, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Time Control, Contract Administration |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here