Batselier, J and Vanhoucke, M (2015) Empirical evaluation of earned value management forecasting accuracy for time and cost. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(11): 05015010, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
The ability to accurately forecast a project's final duration and cost is essential to successful project management. The technique of earned value management (EVM) is considered to provide an effective methodology for obtaining such forecasts; however, this has not yet been adequately tested on empirical data. Therefore, the accuracy of the most commonly used EVM time and cost forecasting methods is evaluated on a diverse and qualitative database consisting of 51 real-life projects. As most projects originate from the construction industry, an explicit focus on these construction projects is provided. Moreover, the desired real forecasting outcomes based on the actual project progress data are also supported by a Monte Carlo simulation study. It is demonstrated that highly accurate time and cost forecasts can be obtained by applying the EVM methodology. Furthermore, the best performing forecasting methods for the projects in the considered database are identified, also taking into account timeliness and the influence of the project network structure.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction management; cost and schedule; cost forecasting; earned value management; empirical database; project control; project management; schedule forecasting; simulation study |
| Index terms: | accuracy, earned value management, project network, construction project, methodology, Monte Carlo simulation, database, forecasting, cost forecasting, construction industry, duration, project management, project control |
| Subjects: | modelling and simulation, project planning, prediction and forecasting, control systems, data management, project controls, industry analysis, economics, research methods, production management, project management theory and practice, professional development |
| Topics: | Digital Applications, Time Control, Information Management, Project Management, Research Practice, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here