Grau, D and Back, W E (2015) Predictability index: Novel metric to assess cost and schedule performance. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 141(12): 04015043, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
The ability to timely forecast accurate project outcomes is fundamental in an industry marked by endemic cost and schedule deviations. Indeed, owners and contractors alike make key strategic decisions about individual projects and capital investment programs alike based on forecasted values. As a departure from current cost and schedule assessments solely based on deviations at completion, this article introduces the Predictability Index, a novel performance metric that also considers the project team's ability to timely predict outcomes at completion. This article conceptually explains and defines the index and, based on the statistical analysis of retrospective data from 135 completed projects, identifies threshold values of predictability performance. Complementary, lessons learned and observations collected from the adoption and assessment of predictability by industry organizations are also discussed. A significant cultural shift within an organization is necessary for project teams to focus on predictability performance.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | benchmark; construction costs; control; cost and schedule; forecasting; predictions; scheduling |
| Index terms: | performance metric, capital investment, lessons learned, schedule performance, scheduling, construction cost, project outcome, program, owner, forecasting, statistical analysis, deviation, project team |
| Subjects: | data science, professional development, software systems, sociology, performance measurement, project controls, economic analysis, operations research, project delivery, project completion, financial and cost management, prediction and forecasting |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Stakeholder Management, Project Management, Quality Management, Information Management, Time Control, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Digital Applications |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here