Bhaumik, P K (2016) Developing and using a new family of project S-curves using early and late shape parameters. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 142(12): 04016076, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Different types of functional relationships have been proposed by many authors to model the cumulative progress curve or the S-curve of a project. They have mostly tried to develop equations which generate a curve having the shape of an S and then tried to mold that into the project of choice. A completely different approach has been used based on a hypothesized behavior of the progress rate of the project. This leads to the development of beta S-curves based on the beta distribution having two parameters. Although beta S-curves have been used earlier for probabilistic forecasting of estimated duration at completion, the early and the late shape parameters of the beta S-curves are explored and ways to estimate these are presented-both before and after the detailed planning have been done. When applied to data from real projects taken from published literature, it was found that the beta S-curves uniformly reported better fit compared to the logistic S-curves.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | beta distribution; project management; project planning and design; s-curves; scheduling |
| Index terms: | duration, project management, estimate, scheduling, project planning, s-curve, forecasting |
| Subjects: | project controls, prediction and forecasting, operations research, project management theory and practice, control systems, financial and cost management, economics |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Research Practice, Time Control, Project Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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