Alexander, D; Hallowell, M and Gambatese, J (2017) Precursors of construction fatalities. II: Predictive modeling and empirical validation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(7): 04017024, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Fatalities continue to plague the construction industry. To address this ongoing concern, researchers have begun to develop and test proactive methods to improve construction safety, such as risk analysis, leading indicators, and predictive analytics. The present study aims to build upon these current methodologies by creating and testing the first objective precursor-analysis program for construction fatalities. Specifically, the following hypothesis was tested: The probability of fatal and disabling events can be predicted by a small number of precursors that can be identified prior to an incident. Testing this hypothesis involved obtaining case data using a precursor-analysis protocol described in the companion to this paper, using principal component analysis to reduce the dimensions of the data set, building a mathematical predictive model using generalized linear modeling, and testing the predictive validity of the model with independent validation cases. The results indicated that there are 16 principal precursors that, when organized into a generalized linear model, are able to predict the outcome of new cases far better than random (p<0.001). With further validation and testing, this new methodology can serve as the foundation for the first objective and valid precursor-analysis program for construction. Such a program will enable the construction industry to predict the potential for a high-impact event during construction operations and ultimately improve its safety performance.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | fatalities; human factors; labor and personnel issues; safety |
| Index terms: | construction operation, validity, fatalities, dimension, testing, construction industry, modelling, principal component analysis, predictive modelling, personnel, human factor, safety performance, risk analysis, construction safety, validation, program, methodology |
| Subjects: | evaluation and assessment methods, construction operations, professional practice, prediction and forecasting, health monitoring assessment and metrics, analytical methods, professional development, management, health risk and incident analysis, software systems, research methods, industry analysis, statistical analysis, environmental health, environmental hazards, occupational health and safety management |
| Topics: | Health and Safety, Research Practice, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Sustainability, Digital Applications, Human Resources, Site Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here