Chang, C Y and Ko, J W (2017) New approach to estimating the standard deviations of lognormal cost variables in the Monte Carlo analysis of construction risks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(1): 06016006, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
If soundly conducted, risk assessment could yield considerable savings for project investors. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) has been widely embraced by risk management guides as an instrumental tool for this purpose. This research aims to develop a new method to improve the rigor of MCS by establishing the link between parameter estimation and assessment of individual risk sources. The method is validated by virtue of its predictive power for the likelihood of a project being successful in securing investors. Eight Taiwanese sewerage build-operate-transfer projects are investigated. Compared with the discounted cash flow approach, this new method can provide a more accurate prediction using the expert's assessment as input of financial impact and occurrence likelihood of individual risks. This finding furnishes solid empirical evidence for the value MCS might add to project appraisal.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Monte Carlo simulation; organizational issues; public-private partnership/build-operate-transfer; risk allocation; risk modeling; sewerage system |
| Index terms: | Monte Carlo simulation, deviation, partnership, savings, investor, modelling, organizational issue, risk assessment, risk management, risk allocation, build-operate-transfer, project appraisal, discounted cash flow, parameter-estimation, estimating, evidence |
| Subjects: | statistical analysis, financial analysis, partnership management, sociology, financial risk, contractual arrangements, analytical methods, financial and cost management, project delivery, economic analysis, modelling and simulation, evaluation and assessment methods, risk assessment, business |
| Topics: | Procurement, Stakeholder Management, Risk Management, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Research Practice, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Organizational Design |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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