Abotaleb, I S and El-Adaway, I H (2018) First attempt toward a holistic understanding of the interdependent rippled impacts associated with out-of-sequence work in construction projects: System dynamics modeling approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(9): 04018084, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Out-of-sequence (OOS) work during construction is a major cause of productivity losses, cost and schedule overruns, and quality decline, either directly or indirectly. Given the complexity of construction projects, such impacts could be linear, nonlinear, sudden, delayed, direct, or rippled. Despite that realization, the construction literature falls short in studying how OOS is interrelated to the different project complex processes; thus, it is not possible to quantify the impacts of OOS on construction projects. The goal of this research is to develop and test an advanced model for analyzing the dynamics of OOS work. To this end, the authors used a multistep interdependent research methodology that involved (1) forming a dynamic hypothesis that explains the dynamics of the feedback structure of the problem in hand; (2) developing an advanced simulation model that captures the quantitative aspects of OOS and its corresponding relationship with progress, productivity, rework, and staffing, respectively; (3) developing a multistage calibration heuristic that enables users to calibrate the model to their projects to perform tailored and accurate analysis; (4) running verification tests on the model to ensure structural and behavioral validity; and (5) validating the model and its industry application using data from a mega construction project of around $500 million. Among other findings, the model demonstrated that not only the total magnitude of OOS work, but also the timing of such OOS work, has impacts on the project performance. The research has substantial intellectual merits to the construction management body of knowledge as it acts as the first to analyze the dynamic of OOS and capture its complexity. The research also introduces concepts and heuristics that add to the dynamic modeling field. As such, this study helps to better understand the relationship between OOS work and the different project feedback systems, visualize the rippled impacts of disruptions caused by OOS work, and provide informative forensic analysis of the corresponding project overruns. As for its practical merits, the presented model will assist project participants in properly analyzing and forecasting the direct and indirect effects of OOS in their projects and gauge the effectiveness of their mitigation policies.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | disruption; dynamics; out of sequence; productivity; progress |
| Index terms: | modelling, dynamics, project performance, research methodology, effectiveness, productivity, schedule overrun, falls, validity, forecasting, heuristic, dynamic modelling, body of knowledge, complexity, construction project, system dynamics, indirect effect, mitigation, rework, overrun |
| Subjects: | systems engineering, project controls, project management theory and practice, financial risk, production management, performance management, health risk and incident analysis, management, analytical methods, prediction and forecasting, knowledge management, operations management, modelling and simulation, computing systems, research design and methodology, evaluation and assessment methods, risk assessment |
| Topics: | Time Control, Digital Applications, Quality Management, Risk Management, Health and Safety, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Research Practice, Project Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here