Sonmez, R (2004) Selection of a probability distribution function for construction cost estimation. In: Khosrowshahi, F (ed.) Proceedings of 20th Annual ARCOM Conference, 1-3 September 2004, Edinburgh, UK.
Abstract
Probabilistic cost estimating techniques could be used during budgeting of construction projects. One of the difficulties in using probabilistic cost estimation techniques is to determine the probability distribution function for the project cost. Although assumptions are made about the probability distribution function of the project cost, there are only few studies in which the fit of data to the assumed distribution functions are actually studied. In this study cost data compiled from building projects are fitted against major probability distribution functions and the goodness of fit of the fitted functions are compared. A model distribution function is selected for the data and a probabilistic cost estimation is performed with the selected distribution.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | cost estimation; probabilistic modeling; probability distribution function |
| Index terms: | construction project, distribution function, modelling, cost data, cost estimating, construction cost, project cost, probability distribution, budgeting, estimation |
| Subjects: | statistical analysis, production management, probability and distributions, financial management, economics, accounting and finance, analytical methods, financial and cost management |
| Topics: | Business Strategy, Cost Management, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here