Son, J; Khwaja, N and Milligan, D S (2019) Planning-phase estimation of construction time for a large portfolio of highway projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 145(4): 04019018, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Estimation of highway project construction time prior to design development has received comparatively little focus from researchers. State transportation agencies (STAs) and their management teams need a method or tool to estimate construction time during the project planning and development phases, where STAs typically manage hundreds of projects at the program level. These programs of projects are updated periodically, which requires an estimation methodology that is efficient, less time consuming, and reliable during the phases where limited project information is available. This paper presents an approach to developing a planning-phase construction time estimation model using linear regression modeling on actual construction time and cost data from 623 highway projects completed by the Dallas District Office, Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). The study developed a multiple linear regression model with three project parameters that were identified as key predictors to construction time. The accuracy and reliability of the developed model were higher than those of the well-known Bromilow's time-cost (BTC) model. The model was also validated by the Mann-Whitney test of its applicability to a large group of projects. The proposed model requires less effort to develop, update, and revise with new data, which allows STAs to conduct planning-phase estimation of the construction time of a large portfolio of diverse projects effectively and efficiently. STAs would benefit from using this model in various project planning areas such as financial planning, staff planning, transportation impact mitigation, budget allocation, and project prioritization. This study also contributes to the body of knowledge with the proposed construction time estimation methodology during the planning and development phase that has been less focused.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | transportation agency, impact mitigation, estimation, regression model, design development, estimate, cost data, construction time, highway construction, project prioritization, accuracy, regression modelling, financial planning, body of knowledge, project planning, program, methodology |
| Subjects: | control systems, financial and cost management, knowledge management, financial risk, design process, professional development, accounting and finance, civil engineering, software systems, research methods, statistical analysis, transportation engineering, asset management, project controls |
| Topics: | Time Control, Design Practice, Digital Applications, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Research Practice, Project Management, Information Management, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here