Assaad, R; El-Adaway, I H and Abotaleb, I S (2020) Predicting project performance in the construction industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(5): 04020030, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Regardless of the different project characteristics in the construction industry, cost and schedule overruns are always regarded as being of paramount importance in the project controls area. Numerous research efforts have been directed to forecast the aforementioned two important project variables using different modeling techniques. However, no prior work is believed to have offered an integrated approach to estimating the performance of construction projects. This critical knowledge gap is compounded even more by the evolving complexities and uncertainties in today's construction industry. This paper creates a holistic framework to evaluate project progress and to predict its performance by incorporating a broad spectrum of inputs. The objectives are to (1) quantify the impacts of the risks related to the performance of projects in terms of cost and schedule; (2) formulate a holistic assessment model; and (3) correlate the developed system to predict cost and time at project completion. To this end, a multistep research methodology was utilized. First, for data collection, a survey was distributed and filled by 63 construction experts to study the effects of 25 performance risks that have shown to be the most important based on a meta-analysis of the literature in a previous study. Second, mathematical and statistical analysis techniques were used to develop a model that maps the investigated project risks to both cost and schedule performance. Steps included fitting parametric and nonparametric distributions, calculating cost overruns, verifying the model, and providing guidelines for using the proposed model. Third, for application, a hypothetical dataset was used to demonstrate the use of the model, its ability to deduce real-world behavior patterns, and associated limitations. The developed framework contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a novel model that improves project performance in terms of prediction, control, management, analysis, and decision making based on an individualized assessment of different risk indicators. This study is valuable for the construction industry because it allows all stakeholders to evaluate the performance of construction projects based on a list of variables, ultimately ensuring more effective and efficient delivery and execution of projects.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Index terms: | research methodology, project performance, project control, construction industry, modelling, schedule overrun, statistical analysis, cost overrun, construction project, decision-making, estimating, complexity, dataset, body of knowledge, maps, meta-analysis, schedule performance, integrated approach, survey |
| Subjects: | data collection methods, research design and methodology, control systems, data science, knowledge management, contractual arrangements, financial and cost management, analytical methods, spatial and geospatial analysis, production management, project management theory and practice, project controls, data management, research evaluation and metrics, decision analysis, industry analysis, systems engineering |
| Topics: | Digital Applications, Time Control, Cost Management, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Research Practice, Risk Management, Procurement |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here