Abdul Nabi, M and El-Adaway, I H (2021) Risk-based approach to predict the cost performance of modularization in construction projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(10): 04021133, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
The lack of proper management of the unique modular risks hinders the construction industry from maximizing the potential benefits associated with the use of modularization. Capturing the full cost benefits of modularized processes requires careful consideration of different aspects related to material, design, technology, logistics, installation, and so forth. Although many previous research efforts provided models to assess the feasibility of modularization in construction projects, no previous study developed a risk-based approach to assess the impact of adopting modular approaches on the cost performance of construction projects. This paper fills this knowledge gap. The authors followed an interrelated multistep research methodology. First, 50 modular risks were identified based on an extensive analysis of the literature conducted in a previous research study. Second, an industry survey was conducted in which 48 construction professionals - with an average of 24.25 years experience in construction operations and 13.6 years experience in modular construction - examined and assessed the impact of modular risks on cost performance. Third, integrated statistical and mathematical techniques - including distribution fitting - were utilized to develop a predictive model that (1) maps the 50 modular risks under investigation to cost performance data collected from 56 modular construction projects, and, consequently, (2) computes the associated cost saving and/or growth. The proposed model was verified using extreme condition tests, surprise behavior test, and sensitivity analysis, and was validated by industry experts. The authors provide guidelines for using the proposed model by industry practitioners. The developed model allows for maximized use of available project information to enable a reliable a priori cost assessment for the modularization processes throughout the different project phases. This is particularly important in the case of varying conditions over the project lifecycle. The developed model helps project stakeholders identify cost enablers and barriers that are interrelated with modularization processes. Accordingly, corrective actions and mitigation plans can be established. This research provides improved practices for decision-making, risk management, and project team alignment to maximize the cost benefits of modularization in construction projects.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | decision-support tool; modular risks; modularization; proactive risk management |
| Index terms: | construction operation, project lifecycle, risk management, investigation, research methodology, modularization, construction professional, project team, cost saving, construction industry, maps, sensitivity analysis, survey, practitioner, project stakeholder, mitigation, construction project, decision-making, modular construction, cost performance |
| Subjects: | construction operations, project delivery, risk assessment, data collection methods, project completion, research design and methodology, practitioner, decision analysis, sociology, building construction, industry analysis, environmental hazards, economics, spatial and geospatial analysis, production management, financial risk, professional development |
| Topics: | Site Management, Cost Management, Information Management, Research Practice, Project Management, Risk Management, Roles and Professions, Stakeholder Management, Sustainability, Construction Technology |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here