Chen, X; Zhang, Y; Zhao, B and Yang, S (2021) Investment probabilistic interval estimation for construction project using the hybrid model of SVR and GWO. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(5): 04021031, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Investment estimation is a key component of early decision-making for a construction project, which is crucial to the project cost control. Currently, most investment estimation researches render the point value results, which could lead to considerable uncertainty in the estimation results and increase the risk of decision-making. Therefore, it is essential to explore a type of systematic, accurate, and effective estimation method. This study proposed an innovative estimation method of probability interval prediction based on the distribution of prediction errors. First, the dimension reduction of the construction indexes was conducted by using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Then, a model was developed based on the fusion of the support vector regression (SVR) and grey wolf optimization (GWO) algorithm. Finally, cost intervals with different confidence levels were obtained on the basis of kernel density estimation (KDE). The case results indicated that when the confidence was 95%, the comprehensive evaluation index coverage width-based criterion (CWC) and the interval coverage rate PICC of the cost estimation were 2.17 and 93.33%, respectively. Hence, the proposed interval prediction model was fairly reliable, which could provide practical guidance for the investment decisions in the early stage of construction projects and give the decision makers more abundant forecasting information.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | confidence interval; cost prediction; error distribution; grey wolf optimization; nonparametric estimation; support vector regression |
| Index terms: | prediction model, project cost, exploratory factor analysis, cost estimating, construction project, decision-making, estimation, density, forecasting, cost prediction, dimension, investment decision, confidence interval |
| Subjects: | production management, economics, statistical analysis, decision analysis, analytical methods, financial and cost management, prediction and forecasting, health monitoring assessment and metrics, economic analysis |
| Topics: | Risk Management, Health and Safety, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Research Practice, Project Management, Urban Studies |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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