Zhu, F; Hu, H; Xu, F and Tang, N (2021) Predicting the impact of country-related risks on cost overrun for overseas infrastructure projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(2): 0012933, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Given the complexity of overseas infrastructure projects (OIPs), difficulty in managing country-related risks commonly causes cost overruns. Thus, there is a pressing need for proactively predicting the impact of country-related risks to enable reasonable decision making in the early proposal stage. Different from the previous studies that heavily relied on a large number of sample points, this research proposes a case-based reasoning (CBR) method capable of reliably predicting the impact of country-related risks on cost overruns for OIPs from a small size of sample points. Grey relational analysis (GRA) is applied twice to address the challenges associated with many variables. Finally, a case study is conducted to validate the reliability of the proposed method. Importantly, this research includes a structured process to develop CBR methods for prediction tailored to different construction companies, hence increasing the adaptability.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | case-based reasoning; cost overrun; country risk; grey relational analysis; overseas infrastructure projects |
| Index terms: | construction company, cost overrun, case-based reasoning, adaptability, decision-making, proposal, infrastructure project, complexity, case study |
| Subjects: | infrastructure and transport systems, project planning, decision analysis, organization, data collection methods, systems engineering, cognitive psychology, financial and cost management, user focus |
| Topics: | Project Management, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Research Practice, Risk Management, Design Practice, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTE |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here