González-Cruz, M C; Ballesteros-Pérez, P; Lucko, G and Zhang, J X (2022) Critical duration index: Anticipating project delays from deterministic schedule information. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(11): 04022121, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
Classical scheduling techniques are well-known to underestimate the average project duration, yet they remain widely used in practice due to their simplicity. In this paper, the new Critical Duration Index (CDI) is proposed. This index indirectly allows anticipation for the probability of a project ending late, as well as the average project duration extension compared with a deterministic project duration estimate. The accuracy of two simple regression expressions that use the CDI was tested on two representative data sets of 4,100 artificial and 108 empirical (real) projects. Results show that these regression expressions outperformed the only alternative index found in the literature. Besides allowing enhanced forecasting possibilities, calculating the CDI only requires basic scheduling information that is available at the planning stage. It can thus be easily adopted by project managers to improve their project duration estimates over prior deterministic techniques.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | delays; forecasting; project; regression; scheduling |
| Index terms: | accuracy, forecasting, project manager, scheduling, project delay, duration, estimate |
| Subjects: | professional development, financial and cost management, operations research, profession, project controls, prediction and forecasting |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Information Management, Roles and Professions, Time Control, Cost Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here