Mahdi Hosseinian, S; Arjomand, A; Li, C Q and Zhang, G (2022) Developing a model for assessing project completion time reliability during construction using time-dependent reliability theory. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 148(4): 04022006, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
The reliability of a project completion time projection (PCT) is of significant concern to project managers, because it profoundly affects how a project is executed. Traditionally, such reliability has been treated as a time-independent variable, although the reliability of the PCT varies throughout the construction period. Little research has looked at the effect of time on the reliability of PCTs. This paper takes a new look at the probabilistic project scheduling problem by proposing a time-dependent reliability model for assessing the reliability of PCTs throughout construction. Ideas from time-dependent reliability theory and series system modeling are applied. A construction project is analyzed to illustrate the performance of the proposed method. It is found that that time-dependent reliability analysis is more appropriate for probabilistic project scheduling, and ignoring the time effect may lead to unrealistic estimates for probabilistic planning. It is also found that the proposed model is fast and accurate, compared to Monte Carlo analysis. The main contribution of this paper lies in incorporating the time-dependent variable in the project network scheduling problem.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction; project duration; time-dependent reliability |
| Index terms: | independent variable, project manager, reliability analysis, duration, modelling, estimate, scheduling, project network, project scheduling, dependent variable, completion time, construction project |
| Subjects: | profession, reliability engineering, operations research, financial and cost management, analytical methods, project planning, production management, project controls, statistical analysis |
| Topics: | Time Control, Cost Management, Research Practice, Project Management, Engineering Principles, Roles and Professions |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here