Nguyen, T Q; Yeoh, J K W and Angelia, N (2023) Predicting percent plan complete through time series analysis. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 149(6): 04023038, ISSN 0733-9364
Abstract
The percent plan complete (PPC) is a crucial performance metric for a last planner system (LPS). The high positive correlations of the PPC with time and cost performance enable a project team to obtain long-term projections from microachievements. Because predicting PPCs is helpful for project control, this study aimed to investigate the temporal nature of PPCs and develop a time series modeling framework for PPC forecasting based on historical PPCs and the reasons for noncompletion (RNCs). This study found that, although PPCs and RNCs are captured weekly, their impacts on future performance can spread over a longer time span, and future PPCs can be predicted based on historical values. A minimum data time frame of 18 weeks was proposed in the context of the case project. Historical RNCs also impact PPC forecasting. The inclusion of key RNCs can help improve the forecasting accuracy. The findings from this study provide an insight to the hidden temporal nature of the PPC metric resulting from the practical implementation of the LPS. This model can be used as a prediction tool, allowing project teams to anticipate project outcomes and design suitable execution strategies.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction delay; percent plan complete; prediction; reason for noncompletion; time series |
| Index terms: | project outcome, time-series analysis, forecasting, modelling, implementation, percent plan complete, project control, project team, PPC, strategy, accuracy, time series, performance metric, cost performance, last planner system, construction delay |
| Subjects: | professional development, management, performance measurement, economics, project controls, research evaluation and metrics, control systems, standard forms of contract, project completion, data science, contractual arrangements, project delivery, analytical methods, prediction and forecasting |
| Topics: | Procurement, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Research Practice, Time Control, Quality Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here