Modelling building construction durations

Purpose – This paper aims to develop a multivariate model that will be applicable to the Nigeria construction industry. Design/methodology/approach – A self-administered questionnaire survey was used to source information on project scope factors and qualitative factors considered in the study. Principal component regression was used for data analysis and model development, using SPSS 16.0 for windows, while T-test was used for model testing and validation. Findings – The study found that delay in progress payment by owner, lateness in revising and approving design document by owner, delay in delivering the site to the contractor by the owner, change order by owner during construction, complexity of project design, poor site management and supervision by contractors, and rain effect on construction activities are qualitative/non-project scope factors with good predictive abilities. Research limitations/implications – Cost, gross floor area and number of floors were the only quantitative/project scope factors considered in the study. The developed models therefore do not account for any variation in duration which may arise from other project scope factors, such as location, procurement route and type of contract. Originality/value – The qualitative factors which emerged as predictors in the derived models increased the accuracy of the models. The models developed therefore serve as useful construction time prediction tools for both consultancy firms and contractor organizations in the Nigerian construction industry.