Lawal, H S; Ahmadu, H A; Abdullahi, M; Yamusa, M A and Abdulrazaq, M (2023) Modeling duration of building renovation projects. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 28(3), pp. 423-438. ISSN 1366-4387
Abstract
Purpose: This study aims to develop a building renovation duration prediction model incorporating both scope and non-scope factors. Design/methodology/approach: The study used a questionnaire to obtain basic information relating to identified project scope factors as well as information relating to the impact of the non-scope factors on the duration of building renovation projects. The study retrieved 121 completed questionnaires from construction firms on tertiary education trust fund (TETFund) building renovation projects. Artificial neural network was then used to develop the model using 90% of the data, while mean absolute percentage error was used to validate the model using the remaining 10% of the data. Findings: Two artificial neural network models were developed – a multilayer perceptron (MLP) and a radial basis function (RBF) model. The accuracy of the models was 86% and 80%, respectively. The developed models' predictions were not statistically different from those of actual duration estimates with less than 20% error margin. Also, the study found that MLP models are more accurate than RBF models. Research limitations/implications: The developed models are only applicable to projects that suit the characteristics and nature of the data used to develop the models. Hence, models can only predict the duration of building renovation projects. Practical implications: The developed models are expected to serve as a tool for realistic estimation of the duration of building renovation projects and thus, help construction project managers to effectively plan and manage it. Social implications: The developed models are expected to serve as a tool for realistic estimation of the duration of building renovation projects and thus, help construction project managers to effectively plan and manage it; it also helps clients to effectively benchmark projects duration and contractors to accurately estimate duration at tendering stage. Originality/value: The study presents models that combine both scope and non-scope factors in predicting the duration of building renovation projects so as to ensure more realistic predictions.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | artificial neural network; construction; duration; modeling; prediction; project; renovation |
| Index terms: | trust fund, multilayer, estimation, renovation, project scope, duration, modelling, estimate, manager, tertiary, construction firm, accuracy, prediction model, artificial neural network, methodology, building renovation, construction project, questionnaire |
| Subjects: | organization, data collection methods, practitioner, scope management, modelling and simulation, economic analysis, prediction and forecasting, analytical methods, financial and cost management, curriculum development, research methods, specialized materials and systems, renovation and retrofit, professional development, production management, asset management, project controls |
| Topics: | Roles and Professions, Project Management, Research Practice, Construction Materials, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Time Control, Education |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here