Atapattu, C N; Domingo, N and Sutrisna, M (2024) A conceptual cost estimation model for the pre-design stage of road projects using multiple regression analysis. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 29(3), pp. 388-404. ISSN 1366-4387
Abstract
Purpose: The current estimation practice in construction projects greatly needs upgrading, as there has been no improvement in the cost overrun issue over the past 70 years. The purpose of this research was to develop a new multiple regression analysis (MRA)-based model to forecast the final cost of road projects at the pre-design stage using data from 43 projects in New Zealand (NZ). Design/methodology/approach: The research used the case study of 43 completed road projects in NZ. Document analysis was conducted to collect data, and statistical tests were used for model development and analysis. Findings: Eight models were developed, and all models achieved the required F statistics and met the regression assumptions. The models’ mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was between 21.25% and 22.77%. The model with the lowest MAPE comprised the road length and width, number of bridges, pavement area, cut and fill area, preliminary cost and cost indices change. Research limitations/implications: The model is based on road projects in NZ. However, it was designed to be able to adapt to other contexts. The findings suggest that the model can be used to improve traditional conceptual estimating methods. Past project data is often stored by the project team but rarely used for analysing and forecasting purposes. This research emphasises that past data can be effectively used to predict the project cost at the pre-design stage with limited information. Originality/value: No research was conducted to adopt cost modelling techniques into the conceptual estimation practice in the NZ construction industry. © 2024, Emerald Publishing Limited.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction; cost estimation; cost model; multiple regression analysis; road projects |
| Index terms: | road project, project team, construction industry, modelling, statistics, case study, New Zealand, forecasting, estimation, document analysis, cost overrun, cost model, design stage, methodology, construction project, statistical test, estimating, model development, multiple regression analysis, cost estimating, upgrading, project cost, project data |
| Subjects: | strategic management, data collection methods, mathematical modelling, professional practice, data science, prediction and forecasting, analytical methods, financial and cost management, project delivery, economics, research methods, Geography, production management, infrastructure engineering, industry analysis, statistical analysis |
| Topics: | Design Practice, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Project Management, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
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