Ashrafi, R M (1981) Risk analysis in management planning and project control: probabilistic techniques are applied to the estimation, planning, forecasting and control of large capital projects to ascertain and reduce the degree of inherent risk and uncertainty. PhD thesis, University of Bradford, UK.
Abstract
Effective estimation, planning, and control of the functions, operations, and resources of a project are among the most challenging tasks faced by the management of today's engineering and construction organisations. The increase in size and complexity of modern projects demand a sound organisational structure and a rational approach. The main objectives of the present study are two-fold. Firstly to report and critically review theoretical and practical developments of different aspects of the management of engineering and construction projects. Secondly to further develop conceptual, practical techniques and processes; also to provide Guidelines to make more effective use. of resources and systems. To achieve these objectives the present research was carried out in close collaboration with various indurtrial organisations. The current literature on project management is critically examined from the point of View of project cost estimation, planning and control. Various existing and recommended procedures, approaches and techniques are reviewed with particular emphasis on using probabilistic techniques. As the problems of scale are increasing, progressively more industries are adopting systems and project management approaches. Problems, deficiencies and gaps in the existing systems are identified. An analysis of a questionnaire survey on Systems-Caps is carried out and the results of the analysis are reported. . S-curves (or progress curves) are widely used in the plauaing and control of cost, time and resources. A mathematical model for the S-curve is adopted for this purpose. Expenditure data on a number of ii recent projects is analysed and fitted to two S-curve models suggested by Keller-Singh and the Department of Health and Social Security (DHSS). A comparative study of the models is carried out. A set of standard parameters for the models is obtained and the predicting accuracy of these models for forecasting expenditure for future similar projects investigated. Quantification aspects of risk involved with the completion time of a project are studied. A number of stochastic distributions arc fitted for this purpose to the programed and actual durations for the different activities of a housing project. The maximum likelihood method is used for the estimation of parameters of the fitted distributions. Due to the increasing use of indices in the construction industry, building cost and tender price indices, their application, limitations and methods of formation are discussed. Box-Jenkins models are employed to study past behaviour and to forecast future trends for labour, materials and building cost indices. Finally, general conclusions derived from the present regearch are sunmarised and areas requiring further research are proposed.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Keller, A Z |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | accuracy; collaboration; complexity; construction project; duration; forecasting; materials; organisational structure; project management; quantification; questionnaire survey; s-curves |
| Index terms: | questionnaire, completion time, construction project, collaboration, complexity, risk analysis, mathematical model, organizational structure, project cost, housing project, management planning, accuracy, survey, tender price, Box-Jenkins, capital project, s-curve, comparative study, project control, project management, duration, construction industry, forecasting, construction organization, quantification, estimation |
| Subjects: | environmental hazards, systems engineering, industry analysis, measurement and scaling, sociology, housing and residential development, project controls, professional development, project management theory and practice, production management, tendering, economics, management, financial and cost management, strategic project management, prediction and forecasting, control systems, mathematical modelling, organization, research design and methodology, data collection methods |
| Topics: | Urban Studies, Time Control, Organizational Design, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Research Practice, Project Management, Information Management, Engineering Principles, Procurement, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here