Clarke, R N (1988) A managerial approach to forecasting for the construction industry. PhD thesis, Queen's University Belfast, UK.
Abstract
The central theme of this study is one of anticipatory management. Although it is hoped that the observations and principles will contribute to management in general, the arena is the Northern Ireland construction industry. The aim is to make the future more clear, and thereby more manageable. It is hoped that this study will help the construction manager to cope with the future vicissitudes in the business cycle, just as the method of present value, or discounted cash flow, helps the financial manager to deal with the future. The construction industry is one of the first industries to benefit from any improvement in business conditions, and equally one of the first to suffer from any worsening. This makes the subject matter of interest to managers in general, for the construction industry is the bell-wether for other industries. The fluctuations in the construction industry's workload are more extreme than in most industries, and this is what makes the matter important for the construction manager. The high failure rate of construction firms is taken as further evidence of the need for anticipatory management, within the industry, to cope with the aforementioned volatility. House building is the area of construction that has been studied most, particularly with a view to forecasting the number of housing starts.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction firms; discounted cash flow; forecasting; house building; anticipatory management; Northern Ireland |
| Index terms: | housing, construction manager, evidence, construction firm, discounted cash flow, workload, manager, anticipatory management, construction industry, Northern Ireland, forecasting |
| Subjects: | practitioner, evaluation and assessment methods, risk assessment, construction type, profession, organization, prediction and forecasting, management, physical geography and landforms, industry analysis, financial analysis |
| Topics: | Construction Technology, Roles and Professions, Risk Management, Geographical Context, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Human Resources |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here