Modeling risk of lunar construction activities: A technology assessment approach

There has been a resurgence of interest in returning to the moon and establishing a permanent human presence there. This resurgence is evidenced by President Bush's 1989 vow to return America to the moon and beyond. NASA administrator Dan Goldin's 1992 suggestion that astronomical observatories be constructed on the moon, also illustrates this resurgence. Along with traditional national space agencies, private interests are also dedicating their resources to furthering space commercialization efforts. This dissertation primarily deals with the role of the construction industry in constructing facilities on the moon. Discussions with experts in the U.S., Japan, and Europe contributed considerable insight into government, industry, and academic perceptions of space construction activities including; the participants; the justification; and the obstacles to those activities. A framework is developed which can be used to identify the risks and uncertainties associated with lunar construction activity. Particular attention is given to technical, financial, and political risks and uncertainties. Lunar excavation is examined using the aforementioned framework. Technology assessment techniques are also employed in evaluating two lunar excavation scenarios. In addition, guidelines are offered to government decision makers for future space policy development. Lastly, a listing of assumptions and principles provide a guide for both industry and government as each prepares to face space development challenges of the 21st Century.