Okuwoga, A A (1994) Construction cost escalation and resource planning in Nigeria: A case study of public sector housing projects 1975-90. PhD thesis, University College London, UK.
Abstract
The main focus of this study is on the critical analysis of construction cost escalation specifics in Nigeria, using the public sector housing projects as an exploratory model. This is aimed at identifying the key factors and their relative significance in the overall cost escalation problem already established. The study starts with a general discussion on Nigeria and the construction industry, then moves on to consideration of the specific factor inputs into construction. The later part of this work is in the area of long term options in solving the perennial problem of construction cost escalation in Nigeria. The preliminary work involves a review of the literature in this area, which is used as a benchmark for this study. Compartmentalisation and categorisation of the problem were the initial main task, to bring the study into definitive and manageable scope. The study identifies two broad types of construction cost escalation as either 'normal' or 'avoidable'. The avoidable is further dissaggregated into resource related and non-resource related. While the non-resource related aspects of cost escalation (e.g. delayed payments, late instructions, underestimation of project budget, etc.) are equally significant, this work concentrates on the resource related aspect (e.g. labour wage spiral, materials costs, plant costs, profit / mark-up). The time scope of this study is sixteen years, 1975–90. The theoretical question on which this work is based is whether construction cost escalation in Nigeria is cost-push or demand pull. The structuralism school of development economics as a critique of the neo-classical and the keynesian, best explains the evidence presented. The study finds that construction cost escalation was due to a combination of demand pull and cost-push factors, with the former dominant in absolute terms. Furthermore, the low substitution effects of chronically abundant resource for chronically scarce resources is a constraint, coupled with underutilisation of capacity. The short run and the long run supply capacities are inelastic. The main tools of analyses are OLS multiple regression, input-output matrices, and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. The study finally came up with two alternative models of combined demand pull and cost-push effects on tender price movement over the period of study 1975–90. In such a historical cost escalation episode of multi-dimensional nature as this, an attempt to solve the problem must necessarily be multi-vocal, hence this study examined the demand and capacity gap situation facing the Nigerian construction industry over the period of study 1975–90. Due to the enormity of the cost of increasing capacity and the development implication of drastically reducing demand, the study recommended demand management in the short/medium term and resource planning in the long term. This study concludes with policy recommendations and areas for further research to complement this work and others.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction cost; demand management; housing projects; policy; public sector; Nigeria; multiple regression; case study; payment |
| Index terms: | case study, cost escalation, construction industry, critique, housing project, mark-up, demand management, tender price, multiple-regression, resource planning, movement, construction cost, Nigeria, capacity gap, public sector, profit, evidence, option |
| Subjects: | evaluation and assessment methods, economics, industry analysis, tendering, economic analysis, resource management, financial and cost management, market analysis, price determination, management, data collection methods, administrative law, housing and residential development, decision analysis, Geography, health behaviours and lifestyles, statistical analysis |
| Topics: | Business Strategy, Organizational Design, Procurement, Cost Management, Legal Issues, Urban Studies, Geographical Context, Risk Management, Site Management, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here