Leslie, S E (1997) Forecasting the funding needs of infrastructure renewal: A construction estimating technique. PhD thesis, University of Cincinnati, USA.
Abstract
This work consists of independent research, presented in the form of an academic dissertation. The research product includes the development of a proposed technique for preparing long term cost and timing forecasts, of funding needs for renewal of individual constructed facilities. This work was undertaken as an aid to the financial task of preparing and justifying adequate user fee policy. The technique is primarily aimed at contributions which construction estimators, and an extension to their professional art, can make to the process of facility renewal cost recovery. The research product includes: (1) procedures for conversion of construction cost estimates to renewal cost estimates in a form that can be correlated with service life duration of components. (2) a tool that accounts for multiple cycle occurrences of renewal event costs. (3) the generation of time serial forecasts of yearly renewal costs. (4) forecasts of needed revenue recovery rates for renewal costs. (5) a comparison of the proposed technique with existing heuristic estimating methods. The well being of the nation is directly linked to the condition of its infrastructure and much has been written about its widespread state of degradation. But the solution, as always, will be found in the renewal of individual facilities; project by project. In this study, a technique with practical potential for solving the root problem was sought. The search processed by directing efforts at specific solutions to the problem of under-investment in renewal. This resulted in the point of view the the problem is mainly due to lack of advanced cost forecasting and rational anticipation of renewal needs. The result of applying this technique could benefit owners and manners of many types of civil, commercial and industrial infrastructure. It is expected to be a valuable resource for those who could, and should, be anticipating and reacting to the cost and timing of facility deterioration. A forecast of funding needs can be accomplished by the utilization of professionals with the skills necessary, to apply these research products and technique.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Minkarah, I A |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | duration; skills; construction cost; deterioration; estimating; forecasting; funding; investment; policy; renewal; service life; construction estimator; estimator; owner; professional; heuristic |
| Index terms: | owner, construction cost, degradation, service life, conversion, recovery, heuristic, forecasting, cost forecasting, duration, cost estimate, estimate, dissertation, funding, revenue, deterioration, renewal, estimating, construction estimating, well-being, construction estimator, estimator |
| Subjects: | mental health and wellbeing, research dissemination and communication, risk assessment, profession, financial and cost management, prediction and forecasting, economic analysis, material degradation and durability, operations management, economics, manufacturing engineering, renovation and retrofit, sociology, asset management, project controls |
| Topics: | Risk Management, Stakeholder Management, Roles and Professions, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Health and Safety, Research Practice, Project Management, Engineering Principles, Construction Materials, Time Control |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here