Chauhan, S S (1999) Dam safety risk assessment modeling with uncertainty analysis. PhD thesis, Utah State University, USA.
Abstract
A risk-enhanced approach to dam safety risk assessment combines the benefits of the traditional approach with those of risk assessment. There is a need to automate the risk analysis calculations component of the risk assessment process so that the time and effort thus saved can be beneficially expended on strengthening risk assessment inputs. The objectives of this study were as follows: (1) to develop a dam safety risk analysis model and demonstrate its application to risk assessment and decision analysis, and (2) to develop a framework for uncertainty analysis and demonstrate its application to dam safety risk assessment. Dartmouth Dam, a 180-meter high rockfill dam in the headwaters of the River Murray system in Australia, was used as a case study. A risk analysis model was developed using Microsoft Excel with VBA programing. The existing dam and several risk reduction alternatives were evaluated against various risk-based dam safety criteria. Sensitivity analysis on key inputs was performed. A framework for uncertainty analysis was developed and the analysis was performed using the @Risk, risk analysis and simulation software. The risk assessment results, with and without uncertainty analysis, were compared. It was found that the results of the uncertainty analysis should be extremely useful for dam safety decision making as they provide an indication of the likelihoods of the results associated with a particular combination of inputs. It is recognized that simplified uncertainty specifications on the inputs are used in this study, thus caution should be exercised in applying the current results directly to the Dartmouth Dam. Recommendations are made for future work in this area.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Bowles, D S |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | uncertainty; decision making; risk assessment; safety; Australia; decision analysis; risk analysis; case study; simulation; specification |
| Index terms: | risk analysis, decision-making, strengthening, specification, risk reduction, sensitivity analysis, modelling, risk assessment, decision analysis, Australia, uncertainty analysis, case study |
| Subjects: | data collection methods, analytical methods, structural engineering, Geography, contractual condition, financial risk, decision analysis, environmental hazards |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Risk Management, Engineering Principles, Research Practice, Geographical Context, Cost Management, Contract Administration |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PE |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here