Ratcliffe, J S (2001) Built environment futures: A general examination of the role of future studies in built environment policy formulation, with a particular appraisal of the use of the foresight principal through scenario planning techniques in the framing, testing and imp. PhD thesis, Ulster University, UK.
Abstract
The central contention of this thesis is that a more informed, structured and imaginative approach towards the study of the future is demanded of those professions concerned with the stewardship of the built environment and that this can most effectively be provided by the adoption and adaptation of the Foresight Principle through Scenario Planning and associated techniques. In addressing this major issue, the work: i. reviews the development of Futures Studies, the Foresight Principle and Scenario Planning as disciplines and processes relevant to future oriented decision-making; ii. explores the use of 'environmental scanning' as a means of comprehending the complex and interrelated driving forces of change at play in the built environment; iii. conducts a series of scenario planning exercises, projects and experiments in different areas of the built environment to appraise the efficacy of the approach in future proofing present policy; iv. investigates and tests the use of the 'strategic conversation' as an effective means of identifying pivotal uncertainty; and v. makes a set of proposals as to how the Foresight Principle through Scenario Planning could best be refined and promoted as an effective methodology for improving decision-making in built environment policy formulation and implementation. The fulfilment of those objectives also broadly reflects the way in which the thesis is argued and the work is organised. Whilst the concept, method and techniques are familiar in other fields of government and business, they have not been applied in such a concerted manner by the professions of the built environment. The studies and findings are thus considered to make a significant contribution to the intellectual 'mind-set' and operational 'toolkit' of those professions.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | built environment; uncertainty; environmental scanning; government; policy; scenario planning; experiment |
| Index terms: | framing, experiment, proposal, appraisal, toolkit, methodology, decision-making, environmental scanning, scenario planning, adaptation, exercise, future study, implementation, testing, built environment, profession |
| Subjects: | infrastructure and transport systems, decision analysis, software systems, research methods, management, factor and component analysis, professional practice, project planning, conceptual models, contractual arrangements, health behaviours and lifestyles, institututions, research design and methodology, user focus, data collection methods, strategic management |
| Topics: | Urban Studies, Design Practice, Business Strategy, Research Practice, Roles and Professions, Health and Safety, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Risk Management, Procurement |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here