Adams, F K (2004) The management of risks in international infrastructural projects. PhD thesis, University of Edinburgh, UK.
Abstract
This thesis aims to conduct a review and survey to establish the appropriateness of the types of risk management techniques currently used in the construction industry, to investigate risk perception in construction and its impact on project performance, and to develop a procedural model for the elicitation of expert opinions about risks that minimises the adverse effects of risk perception on individual estimates of risk, and provides these opinions as input variables to the rigorous and probabilistic analysis of contractual risks. The work is a cross-cultural study, applying mail questionnaire surveys, interviews, Delphi and Vignette techniques, and analysing risk management approaches and applications of the elicitation model developed by the study in both United Kingdom and Ghana. The data generated by the elicitation model are analysed using relative likelihood methods to develop subjective prior probability distributions for use as input variables in the Bayesian analysis of contractual risks in construction. The study concludes that although relative frequency data are often unavailable for contractual risks, existing predominant practices for contractual risk analysis are inappropriate for the nature of contractual risks. Furthermore, individual perceptions about risks significantly affect expert judgements about risks (and consequently project performance) in spite of their expertise. Using the expert elicitation model developed by the study and the analytical approaches applied, it is possible to capture, encode and aggregate the knowledge and experiences of a group of relevant experts to derive probability distribution functions of contractual risks to be applied as input variables to a Bayesian analysis of contractual risks, and thereby achieve a more appropriate, systematic and rigorous approach to contractual risk analysis. Evidence from the study also indicates that this approach need not involve any significantly high costs as the analysis can be done using standard spreadsheet software and add-in programmes that companies already have on their computer systems.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Ghana; interview; probability; project performance; questionnaire survey; risk analysis; risk management; United Kingdom |
| Index terms: | infrastructural project, computer system, interview, survey, programme, United Kingdom, risk perception, Bayesian analysis, evidence, questionnaire, expert judgement, risk analysis, vignette, spreadsheet, probability distribution, Ghana, aggregate, project performance, risk management, cross-cultural study, construction industry, estimate |
| Subjects: | risk assessment, evaluation and assessment methods, data collection methods, research dissemination and communication, materials science, computing systems, data science, financial and cost management, Geography, infrastructure engineering, project management theory and practice, culture and identity, project controls, industry analysis, statistical analysis, environmental hazards |
| Topics: | Cost Management, Research Practice, Digital Applications, Time Control, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Geographical Context, Risk Management, Sustainability |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here