Seel, K C (2004) “Boom and bust” cycles in power plant construction: A simulation study of the temporal and geographical aspects of the Alberta competitive electrical industry. PhD thesis, University of Calgary, Canada.
Abstract
This dissertation describes a study undertaken to explore the potential for power plant construction to appear in the deregulated Alberta electrical system in waves of alternating under and over supply of electricity, or “boom and bust”. The ultimate impact to the market in such a case would be major swings in wholesale electricity prices as the industry transitions through the phases of a construction cycle. The study begins by exploring a geographical perspective on electricity and energy in general. It then provides a brief historical context on electrical deregulation in Alberta and elsewhere, before discussing the relevant literature pertaining to simulating dynamic feedback within energy systems with a focus on electricity. The work makes extensive use of Forrester's (1961) System Dynamics methodology to construct a simulation model called “APPCON” (for Alberta Power Plant Construction model). APPCON was used to demonstrate the conditions under which “boom and bust” construction cycles might occur using an explicit theory of investor behavior. Construction cycles are a potentially serious problem but they are not inevitable. The research concludes with computer simulations demonstrating how construction cycles could be dampened or eliminated through two different policy mitigation strategies; (1) continuous capacity payment along side of the market clearing price for energy, and, (2) a conservation strategy based on price sensitive load curtailment.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Waters, N |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | market; conservation; feedback; payment; policy; simulation |
| Index terms: | investor, conservation, dissertation, deregulation, energy system, power station construction, strategy, computer simulation, mitigation, methodology, system dynamics |
| Subjects: | management, research methods, civil engineering, financial risk, sociology, regulatory law, research dissemination and communication, computing systems, environmental policy, modelling and simulation, energy systems |
| Topics: | Sustainability, Engineering Principles, Legal Issues, Stakeholder Management, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Digital Applications |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here