Program planning under uncertainty

The purpose of this dissertation is to provide the means for program managers to optimally allocate resources from common resource pools to individual tasks on several competing projects. Instead of the traditional use of schedules, we develop control policies in the form of planned resource allocation to tasks that capture the uncertainty associated with task durations and the impact of resource allocation on those durations. This dissertation is organized into three chapters. The focus of chapter one is the development of a model and a solution procedure for resource allocation across projects when there are significant uncertainties associated with the task durations and the resource needs of individual tasks. This chapter makes two significant contributions to the literature on project management. First, it creates a mathematical model that captures the uncertainty associated with task durations and resource requirements. Second, it develops a solution procedure that allocates available resources to tasks. The procedure is sensitive to the relationship between the resources allocated to a task and the probability distribution for the duration of the task. We use simulation to capture the risk associated with the resource assignments to tasks. The second chapter is built on the findings of the first chapter and applies the concepts developed in the first chapter to the specific needs of the construction industry. This chapter makes four significant contributions to the literature in project management for construction activities. First, it creates a mathematical formulation and solution procedure that captures the uncertainty associated with task duration and resource requirements that are sensitive to the particular characteristics of construction activities. Second the model includes an explicit mechanism to explore the consequences of cross-functioning personnel. Third, it creates a mechanism to understand the value of re-planning worker assignments as the projects unfold. Fourth, a complex case study is developed illustrating how to use the model in practice. The focus of the third chapter is the refinement and computational evaluation of a solution procedure based on chapter one for resource allocation across projects when there are significant uncertainties associated with the task durations and the resource needs of individual tasks.