Wong, M W J (2006) Forecasting manpower demand in the construction industry of Hong Kong. PhD thesis, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong.
Abstract
Manpower is undoubtedly a valuable asset upon which the construction industry depends. However, rapid changes of the economy, working arrangements, and technology in construction advocate reliable estimations of manpower demand to lessen future skills imbalance. The aim of this research is to develop advanced manpower demand forecasting models, at both project and industry levels, to facilitate manpower planning for the construction industry of Hong Kong.At the project level, statistical models for forecasting the demand of labour demand for a construction project were developed using multiple regression analysis. Results reveal that project cost and project type play an important role in determining the project labour requirements. The forecasting models could serve as practical tools for contractors and government to predict the labour requirements and number of jobs created at an early outset, thus enabling proper human resources planning and budgeting. At the industry level, co-integration analysis was applied to develop a long-term relationship between aggregate construction manpower demand and relevant variables. It was proved that the demand and the associated economic factors including construction output, wage, material price and interest rate are cointegrated. Subsequently, a vector error correction model incorporating short-run dynamics was developed for forecasting purposes. Upon completion of the aggregate model, occupational share manpower demand models were established by means of time series modelling analyses. The construction output and labour productivity were the most significant factors determining the quantity demand of construction manpower. Addressing these two attributes on policy formulation is critical to achieve a sustainable labour market.This research provides a significant contribution in the area of manpower demand forecasting. The forecasting models developed can benefit the construction industry by providing critical information on the future construction manpower requirements and assist policy makers to formulate training strategies. Apart from this practical use, the research also contributes new knowledge to the area of manpower forecasting and planning. It enriches and updates the understanding of advanced forecasting methodologies for collating construction manpower statistics so as to facilitate manpower planning. The research framework and methodology adopted in this study can provide a solid framework for conducting comparative studies in other Asian countries.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Chan, A P C and Chiang, Y H |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | skills; construction project; interest rate; budgeting; forecasting; labour requirements; manpower; project cost; training; Hong Kong; error correction model; labour productivity; productivity; regression analysis; time series |
| Index terms: | labour productivity, workforce planning, labour market, comparative study, vector error correction model, dynamics, regression analysis, construction industry, modelling, economic factor, labour requirement, statistics, statistical model, forecasting, Hong Kong, error correction model, estimation, productivity, aggregate, interest rate, methodology, integration, human resource, construction project, construction output, multiple regression analysis, time series, project cost, budgeting, strategy |
| Subjects: | management, financial management, economics, research methods, Geography, production management, economic concepts, organizational analysis, industry analysis, systems engineering, statistical analysis, research design and methodology, mathematical modelling, materials science, operations management, data science, prediction and forecasting, economic analysis, financial and cost management, analytical methods |
| Topics: | Geographical Context, Project Management, Engineering Principles, Supply Chain Management, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Research Practice, Site Management, Organizational Design, Human Resources |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here