To talk or to fight? Collective effects of strategic, cultural, and institutional factors on investors' renegotiation approach in public-private concessions

High renegotiation rates have been observed in infrastructure concession agreements. Two recent studies found close to half of infrastructure concessions were renegotiated (Guasch and Straub 2006, Woodhouse 2006). While previous studies have offered different explanations for the occurrence of renegotiations, relatively few have written on the renegotiation process itself. Moreover, most infrastructure investment research has studied renegotiations from a rational "calculating" perspective, but has generally overlooked other non-strategic factors that may influence stakeholder decisions. This research addresses these two gaps in the literature by investigating the integrative and collective effects of three sets of variables—strategic factors, cultural dimensions, and institutional environment—on the renegotiation process. Specifically, the study investigates how these three sets of variables affect investors' renegotiation strategy, ranging from relational bargaining to legalistic arbitration or litigation, in responding to government-initiated renegotiations. Data assembled through archival research on project histories of 14 privatized transportation and power projects are analyzed using the Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fs-QCA) method and software. The fs-QCA analysis finds that combinations of strategic, cultural and institutional variables interact in three different ways that cause investors to adopt a relational renegotiation versus a legalistic response. Specifically, the three combinations that lead to a relational approach are (1) high future business and low rule of law; (2) high current investment and high assertiveness; (3) high current investment and high collectivism and high future orientation and high humane orientation. Furthermore, the net effect of any one variable can be offset by a combination of other factors that influence investors' renegotiation approach. For example, the effect of high rule of law, which promotes a legalistic approach, can be offset by favorable cultural dimensions and yield a relational approach when a high current investment level is also present. It is thus imperative to consider multiple causal factors and their interactive effects in the analysis of renegotiation strategy. This interdisciplinary research serves as a building block for other researchers to continue integrating engineering and social science to find effective measures to set up and manage Public-Private Partnership delivery of infrastructure projects.