Chan, H L J (2011) Developing a fuzzy risk assessment model for target cost and guaranteed maximum price contracts in the construction industry of Hong Kong. PhD thesis, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong.
Abstract
Target Cost Contracts (TCC) and Guaranteed Maximum Price (GMP) schemes have been practised worldwide over the past few decades to achieve better value for money and more favourable project outcomes. However, a comprehensive review of previous works on TCC/GMP in Europe, the United States, Australia and Asia has indicated that there is a limited amount of empirical research focusing on the TCC/GMP procurement approach, particularly on risk issues in the Hong Kong context. This research aims to identify, assess and allocate the key risk factors associated with TCC/GMP schemes, and to evaluate the effectiveness of various risk mitigation measures. Based on a comprehensive literature review and a series of structured face-to-face interviews, an empirical questionnaire survey was then undertaken to solicit the opinions of relevant practitioners on risk identification and assessment, their preference for the allocation of 34 risk factors and the effectiveness of 18 recommended risk mitigation measures. The key risk factors of TCC/GMP were identified, whilst the preference of risk allocation and the effective risk mitigation of projects procured in these procurement strategies were also explored in the questionnaire survey. A Fuzzy Risk Assessment Model for TCC/GMP construction projects has also been developed using factor analysis and fuzzy synthetic evaluation method, based on the results of the questionnaire survey. The most important 17 Principal Risk Factors after the calculation of normalised values were selected. Five Principal Risk Groups (PRGs) were then generated by factor analysis. It is found that "design documentation risks" is the major hurdle to the success of TCC/GMP projects in Hong Kong. The model was then validated by seven experts of TCC/GMP in Hong Kong and was confirmed as being reliable and adequate for use. More importantly, an Overall Risk Index associated with TCC/GMP construction projects and the risk indices of individual PRGs can be generated from the model for reference by stakeholders. An objective and reliable assessment can be achieved. The model has provided a solid platform to measure, evaluate and reduce the risk levels of TCC/GMP projects based on objective evidence instead of subjective judgments.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Chan, D |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | target cost; value for money; construction project; documentation; risk assessment; risk identification; stakeholder; Australia; Europe; Hong Kong; United States; factor analysis; interview; questionnaire survey |
| Index terms: | Hong Kong, judgment, platform, Europe, target cost, Australia, project outcome, procurement strategy, risk assessment, risk factor, effectiveness, risk allocation, factor analysis, construction industry, United States, interview, fuzzy synthetic evaluation, literature review, face, risk identification, survey, documentation, Asia, construction project, practitioner, evidence, questionnaire, risk mitigation, preference, value-for-money |
| Subjects: | economics, performance management, decision-making and reasoning, physical geography and landforms, financial risk, digital design, evaluation, professional development, Geography, production management, statistical analysis, environmental hazards, industry analysis, decision-making and optimization, project completion, evaluation and assessment methods, data collection methods, practitioner, dispute resolution, psychology, regions and continents, contractual arrangements, data analysis and analytics |
| Topics: | Roles and Professions, Cost Management, Information Management, Research Practice, Organizational Design, Digital Applications, Sustainability, Procurement, Project Management, Geographical Context, Legal Issues, Value Management, Quality Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here