Nishiyama, D and Radosavljevic, M (2009) Mathematical modelling of decision making processes in construction projects. In: Dainty, A R J (ed.) Proceedings of 25th Annual ARCOM Conference, 7-9 September 2009, Nottingham, UK.
Abstract
Many different individuals, who have their own expertise and criteria for decision making, are involved in making decisions on construction projects. Decision-making processes are thus significantly affected by communication, in which a dynamic performance of human intentions leads to unpredictable outcomes. In order to theorise the decision making processes including communication, it is argued here that the decision making processes resemble evolutionary dynamics in terms of both selection and mutation, which can be expressed by the replicator-mutator equation. To support this argument, a mathematical model of decision making has been made from an analogy with evolutionary dynamics, in which there are three variables: initial support rate, business hierarchy, and power of persuasion. On the other hand, a survey of patterns in decision making in construction projects has also been performed through self-administered mail questionnaire to construction practitioners. Consequently, comparison between the numerical analysis of mathematical model and the statistical analysis of empirical data has shown a significant potential of the replicator-mutator equation as a tool to study dynamic properties of intentions in communication.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | mathematical modelling; decision making; communication |
| Index terms: | construction practitioner, survey, statistical analysis, numerical analysis, decision-making process, mathematical model, questionnaire, construction project, dynamics, mathematical modelling, decision-making |
| Subjects: | analytical methods, data science, data analysis and analytics, mathematical modelling, data collection methods, systems engineering, decision analysis, professional development, production management |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Project Management, Engineering Principles, Information Management, Risk Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here