Attarzadeh, M (2014) Negotiation-based risk management for PPP-BOT infrastructure projects. PhD thesis, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Abstract
This thesis proposes a systematic negotiation mechanism for PPP-BOT infrastructure project based on the game theory, hybrid simulation and real options valuation. Firstly, this mechanism helps to determine each party's negotiation position and corresponding payoff through fuzzy game theory approach especially in the development phase. Secondly, the proposed fuzzy randomness Monte Carlo simulation technique helps both parties to incorporate risk and uncertainty in the simulation simultaneously. Its results lead to well defined negotiation bound (bargaining interval) of decision variables i.e. Financial and contractual negotiation parameters which are called negotiable concession items and its associated cumulative distribution functions corresponding to specific confidence level for simulation output. Finally, the financial viability of PPP-BOT project was assessed. The real options mechanism was proposed to retain the project financial viability at an acceptable level by all parties.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Chua Kim Huat, D and Beer, M |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | real options; uncertainty; game theory; concession; negotiation; risk management; Monte Carlo simulation; simulation; infrastructure project |
| Index terms: | distribution function, game theory, hybrid simulation, financial viability, real option, negotiation, bargaining, risk management, infrastructure project, Monte Carlo simulation |
| Subjects: | probability and distributions, conflict resolution, economics, decision models, infrastructure and transport systems, business management, modelling and simulation, economic analysis, risk assessment |
| Topics: | Supply Chain Management, Stakeholder Management, Risk Management, Digital Applications, Engineering Principles, Business Strategy, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
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