Alzahrani, S (2015) Dynamic simulation of the impact of risk events and risk cost in KSA PPP projects. PhD thesis, University of Liverpool, UK.
Abstract
The majority of risk events in Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects are due to the complexity of these projects. It requires the best of risk allocation to the appropriate party that is able to manage and control the allocated risks in order to achieve best value for money. Many researchers stated that the influence of a risk might trigger another risk event. Sterman (1992) identified that large-scale projects are complex and they have extremely dynamic and interdependent risks and uncertainties over their life cycle. Williams (2002) also state that in a large scale construction project the risk generally interact with each other in a nonlinear manner over time. Investigating the interaction between risk factors can help to decrease uncertainties. Dey and Ogunlana (2004) state that there it is necessity to analyse the interactions between risk events in complex projects. In recent approaches to risk management in PPP projects, experts tend to consider risk factors as being independent and ignore the influence of interaction between risk events over the project life cycle. This undermines the effectiveness of project risk estimation. In this work, further investigation on the interaction between risk factors and their impact on the risk cost in PPP projects will be investigated in Saudi Arabia based on first hand data collected from practitioner working in the kingdom. A questionnaire was designed and sent to a representative set of 250 practitioners in the field of Saudi PPP projects. 68 practitioners completed and returned the questionnaire with a 27% response rate. The collected data was pre-processed, processed and analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Using this statistical tool, regression analysis was carried out to build the equation of impact of risk events in each risk category. After that, the BestFit software was used to find best probability distribution fit for each risk factor. In This study, a new modelling approach for mapping risks and analysing the impact of risk events interaction considering the best distribution fit for each risk factor is developed using System Dynamics (SD) techniques (VENSIM software). This proposed model can help to estimate outturn construction unit cost of PPP projects and risk cost that is influenced by risk events interaction. Based on comprehensive prototyping and validation, the proposed approach is found to be robust valid tool for addressing real impact of risk events and evaluating the expected risk cost, which can help to improve risk allocation in PPP projects.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | complexity; construction project; effectiveness; life cycle; partnership; probability; regression analysis; risk management; Saudi Arabia; value for money |
| Index terms: | regression analysis, public private partnership, complex project, modelling, interaction, estimate, investigation, risk management, risk factor, effectiveness, risk allocation, best value, social science, estimation, probability distribution, partnership, life cycle, package, Saudi Arabia, complexity, unit cost, value-for-money, questionnaire, validation, practitioner, construction project, system dynamics, prototyping, mapping |
| Subjects: | partnership management, statistical analysis, systems engineering, performance management, professional development, financial and cost management, risk assessment, data collection methods, computing systems, value management, environmental hazards, behavioral psychology, spatial and geospatial analysis, theoretical framing, evaluation, financial risk, Geography, production management, strategic project management, analytical methods, contractual arrangements, bidding, innovation and technology management, practitioner |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Information Management, Cost Management, Roles and Professions, Stakeholder Management, Digital Applications, Geographical Context, Project Management, Engineering Principles, Procurement, Sustainability, Risk Management, Quality Management, Value Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here