Amadi, A I (2016) Explaining cost overruns in highway projects: a geo-spatial regression modelling and cognitive mapping of latent pathogens and contextual drivers. PhD thesis, University of Salford, UK.
Abstract
The research set off with the rationale of understanding the cause of the unusually high cost overruns experienced in highway projects, executed in the tropical wetland setting of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. An expansive range of research from academe, revealed a strong dialectical debate between the theoretical and technical schools of thought, as to what propagates relatively higher cost overruns in public infrastructure projects. The theorists posit that optimism bias and deliberate misrepresentation by project planners, largely accounts for cost overruns in transportation infrastructure projects, and not geology/geotechnical risk as tendered by the technical school. Yet the literature continues to report inadequate geotechnical risk containment resulting in considerable post-contract cost overruns in highway projects. As a result of this contradiction, and the lack of a robust empirical analysis to this effect, this research was carried out to explore the statistical validity of geotechnical risk factors in explaining cost overruns recorded in highway projects executed in the Niger Delta region. Using the case study research strategy, 16 interviews were conducted within the 3 highway agencies in the region, longitudinal cost data was also gathered from 61 completed highway projects, along with geotechnical index data on the engineering properties of sub-grade soils at project locations. These were comprehensively analysed using an innovative multi-method approach: Thematic analysis; Documentary/archival analysis; Spatial analysis of geotechnical data sets, designed to quantitatively converge in a triangulatory log-regression model. The results of regression analysis identified that latent pathogens such as heterogeneous ground conditions and non-adherence to geotechnical best practices, amidst a wide array of unanticipated social constructs, account for the majority of the recorded variance between the initial estimates and the project’s final account. The interplay of the emergent social constructs with the latent pathogens was further cognitively mapped out, using content analysis, to visually conceptualise the relative weightiness of the intricate complexity of the contextual dynamics, driving the unusually high level of cost overruns experienced in highway project delivery in the Niger Delta. The study concluded that the phenomenon of cost overruns in highway projects is multi-hydra headed, driven by a complexity of technical and contextual social variables, and not the simplistic explanations implied by the dichotomous arguments in the literature. It was thus recommended that tackling cost overruns in highway projects require far more than the scientific application of technical risk management tools, and should therefore, further incorporate concerted and specifically targeted efforts at curbing the intrinsic contextual triggers within, and external to highway organisations.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | best practice; case study; complexity; content analysis; geology; infrastructure project; interview; Nigeria; optimism bias; regression analysis; risk management; transport |
| Index terms: | optimism bias, infrastructure project, estimate, cost data, risk management tool, regression analysis, dynamics, pathogen, highway construction, best practice, transportation infrastructure, cognitive mapping, planner, risk management, risk factor, cost overrun, Nigeria, validity, regression model, variance, public infrastructure, case study, agency, complexity, final account, Niger Delta, ground condition, thematic analysis, content analysis, strategy, regression modelling, interview |
| Subjects: | evaluation and assessment methods, cognitive psychology, environmental hazards, physical geography and landforms, accounting and finance, Geography, financial risk, data analysis and analytics, financial and cost management, data collection methods, risk assessment, profession, business, payment, measurement and scaling, sociology, geotechnical engineering, infrastructure and transport systems, systems engineering, statistical analysis, management, health risk and incident analysis, civil engineering, methods and analysis |
| Topics: | Engineering Principles, Geographical Context, Health and Safety, Sustainability, Risk Management, Contract Administration, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Roles and Professions |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here