Odimabo, O (2016) Risk management system to guide building construction projects in developing countries: a case study of Nigeria. PhD thesis, University of Wolverhampton, UK.
Abstract
Project risk assessment is an effective tool for planning and controlling cost, time and achieving the technical performance of a building construction project. Construction projects often face a lot of uncertainties, which places building construction projects at the risk of cost, time overruns as well as poor quality delivery. Considering the limited resources of developing countries, there is need to complete building projects on-time, on-budget, and to meet optimal quality hence, risk management is an important part of the decision making process in construction industry as it determines the success or failure of construction projects. In line with this need, this research aims to establish a system to improve the time, cost and quality performance of building construction projects in developing countries, through a comprehensive risk management model that ensures the expectations of clients are met. To achieve the aim of this research, a mixed methodological approach was adopted. Through the review of literature, a conceptual risk management framework suitable to elaborate risk assessment of building construction projects especially for developing countries was developed. A questionnaire survey using a nonprobability sampling technique was conducted to elicit information from construction professionals in Nigeria to assess their perception of 79 risk factors identified from literature review based on the likelihood of occurrence and impact on projects using a five point scale. Responses from 343 construction professionals were drawn from 305 contractors and subcontractors and 38 clients (private and public) within the Nigerian construction sector. Response data was subjected to descriptive statistics to depict the frequency distribution and central tendency of responses. Subsequently, the risk acceptability matrix (RAM) was adopted to categorise and prioritise risk factors. 27 critical risks that affect building construction projects were identified. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model was developed by structural learning and used to examine the cause and effect relationship amongst the 27 critical risk factors. The developed BBN model was subjected to validation using a multiple case study of two building construction projects in Nigeria. The result showed the interrelation between the 27 risk factors and how they contributed to cost and time overruns as well as quality problems. The critical risks directly affecting the cost of building construction project were: fluctuation of material prices; health and safety issues; bribery and corruption; material wastage; poor site management and supervision; and time overruns. The critical factors identified to directly affect quality were: supply of defective materials; working under harsh conditions; improper construction methods; lack of protective equipment; ineffective time allocation; poor communication between involved stakeholders; and unsuitable leadership style. Time overruns on building construction projects was directly caused by: quality problems; low productivity; improper construction methods; poor communication between involved parties; delayed payments in contracts; and poor site management and supervision. As a consolidation of the findings of this research, a BBN model for identifying risk factors that directly affect time, cost and quality on building construction projects has been developed which has the potential for assisting construction stake holders to manage risks on their projects. In view of the findings, a best practice system for risk management in building construction projects in Nigeria has been developed with an implementation guide to help building construction practitioners to successfully implement risk management on their building construction projects. Suitable risk responses, also in the form of recommendations have been identified. The strategies include actions to be taken to respond to risks based on their perceived significance or acceptability as well as some positive risk responses, such as exploiting, sharing, enhancing and accepting, and other negative risk responses, such as avoidance, mitigation transfer and acceptance.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Bayesian belief network; delay; developing countries; Nigeria; questionnaire survey; risk management |
| Index terms: | bayesian belief network, construction method, survey, leadership style, risk response, building construction, face, literature review, strategy, developing country, subcontractor, construction sector, health and safety issues, mitigation, corruption, practitioner, validation, questionnaire, construction project, Nigeria, critical factor, decision-making process, productivity, case study, time overrun, frequency distribution, supervision, construction industry, implementation, protective equipment, statistics, risk factor, sampling, risk management, best practice, quality performance, construction professional, risk assessment, site management |
| Subjects: | leadership, professional ethics, environmental hazards, building construction, production management, Geography, development economics, financial risk, construction operations, contractual arrangements, psychology, practitioner, industry analysis, statistical analysis, occupational health and safety management, project controls, probabilistic model, decision analysis, professional development, management, data analysis and analytics, project delivery, control systems, data collection methods, risk assessment, mathematical modelling, business |
| Topics: | International Construction, Digital Applications, Time Control, Site Management, Organizational Design, Information Management, Research Practice, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Construction Technology, Roles and Professions, Quality Management, Legal Issues, Project Management, Geographical Context, Health and Safety, Sustainability, Procurement, Risk Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here