Developing whole-life cost models for retrofit options in office buildings

Office retrofit building projects have become a subject of increased attention among building researchers in the United Kingdom, and in many economically advanced nations. Existing whole-life costing models have however, not proven to be robust enough to deal with these retrofit building scenarios. There is a growing body of evidence that conceptual modifications in the mechanics of whole-life cost modelling, could facilitate improvements in the long-term cost assessment of buildings. Recent research has made a case for the existence of revocability and disruption, in the appraisal of retrofit building investments. Revocability, connotes the potential for variability, in the future cost projections of a building over its estimated life. Disruption relates to the diminished building use, or unusability, over a period of implementing a retrofit initiative. Existing whole-life cost models have however, not recognised the implications of revocability and disruption in their framework. This study conducts an investigation into the whole-life costing of office retrofit building projects, and develops a Fuzzy New-Generation Whole-life Costing approach. Two office retrofit building projects are adopted, to appraise the identified issues in the whole-life costing framework. A number of building configuration permutations (BCPs) constituting different retrofit options, are developed in both projects. The potential implication of revocability and disruption, are evaluated based on probability and fuzzy logic principles respectively. Sensitivity analysis is applied to discount rate assumptions over the estimated lives, of the projects considered. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient is used in analysing the ranking results of selected projects. This provided an assessment of the relative preference of BCPs in the projects. Results from the case studies show 1) disruption issues account for up to 12% of initial capital costs; 2) revocability accounts for up to 35% of initial capital cost, over a 20-year life; up to 119%, over a 60-year life; 3) up to 2% underestimation in the whole-life cost, over a 20-year life; and up to 45% underestimation, over a 60-year period, in the SPACE project; 4) up to 9% underestimation in the whole-life cost, over a 20-year life; and up to 53% underestimation, over a 60-year life, in the MS project.