Hassan, M E M (2017) Modeling the macroeconomic impact of construction spending as a public policy tool - the case of employment. PhD thesis, Purdue University, USA.
Abstract
Construction is considered as one of the largest industries in the United States and Worldwide and its impact on the national and global economies as well as the value it adds cannot be overstated. This important role dictates a special investigation of the nature of that relationship between the construction sector and the economy with the objective of providing academics and policy-makers with a deeper insight into the specifics of such relationship. A major portion of this research focuses primarily on one aspect of the relationship between construction spending and the economy, namely employment. This is achieved through the use of econometric time-series analysis techniques in order to investigate and model that relationship and also to facilitate capturing any causal short- and long-run relationships. The econometric techniques adopted in this research include ARIMA, ARIMAX and Vector Error Correction Modeling. Moreover, as an initial step towards developing full-fledged simulation models that can aid in estimating the impact of construction spending on the economy, this research presents a view of construction as a complex system-of-systems highlighting its inherent complexity and the interdependencies between its components. It further presents a system dynamics model that simulates the process of employment based on the market search theory, which can serve as the foundation of a comprehensive system dynamics model that links all key aspects of the economy.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Kandil, A |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | complexity; construction sector; market; employment; estimating; policy; United States; error correction model; simulation |
| Index terms: | time-series analysis, complex system, error correction model, employment, investigation, econometric, modelling, United States, construction spending, system dynamics, estimating, complexity, construction sector, public policy |
| Subjects: | computing systems, data collection methods, financial and cost management, management, statistical analysis, systems engineering, industry analysis, research evaluation and metrics, analytical methods, economic analysis, public policy, Geography |
| Topics: | Governance, Research Practice, Business Strategy, Cost Management, Human Resources, Digital Applications, Geographical Context, Engineering Principles |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here