Jadevicius, A; Sloan, B and Brown, A (2010) Is 100 years of research on property cycles enough to predict the future of UK property market performance with accuracy? In: Egbu, C (ed.) Proceedings of 26th Annual ARCOM Conference, 6-8 September 2010, Leeds, UK.
Abstract
In light of recent events in the world economy it is becoming extremely difficult to ignore the existence of cycles in the general business sector, as well as in building and property. Moreover, this issue has grown to have significant importance in the UK, as the UK property market has been characterized by boom and bust cycles with a negative impact on the overall British economy. Hence, a better understanding of property cycles can be a determinant of success for anyone working in the property industry. The paper reviews chronological research on the subject, which stretches over one hundred years, characterizes the major publications and commentary on the subject, and discusses their major implications. The particular emphasis is on research methodologies and methods, data and data analysis techniques employed, and outcomes of these studies. The review also considers the literature on how regular the cycles are. It identifies four major and four auxiliary cycles, discusses their general characteristics, and key forces that produce them. The concluding remarks summarize the discussion and present key findings. Future planned research will discuss whether analysis of historical data and identification of the key external and internal forces in commercial property that produced the sequence of cycles, enables extrapolation from this historic data to reliably predict the future of the UK property market performance with accuracy.
| Item Type: | Conference Paper (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | business; cycle; data analysis; economy; property; UK |
| Index terms: | accuracy, property market, data analysis, becoming, property cycle, publication, determinant, research methodology, commercial property |
| Subjects: | data analysis and analytics, real estate economics, research design and methodology, research dissemination and communication, risk assessment, construction type, philosophical process, professional development |
| Topics: | Urban Studies, Risk Management, Construction Technology, Research Practice, Information Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here