Manocha, N (2018) Infrastructure investments under deep uncertainty. PhD thesis, National University of Singapore, Singapore.
Abstract
This thesis presents an overarching framework that can support decision making under deep uncertainty. It starts with the existing adaptation tipping points and adaptation pathways approaches and extends them by means of a Real Options Valuation. A Real Options Valuation is a tool that can quantify, in economic units; the flexibility generated from using adaptive approaches. A detailed methodology for applying real options in the context of water resources management is discussed in this study. Thereafter, the developed pathway map is post-processed to select a subset of preferred pathways by means of informal and formal sequencing approaches namely the “Build Up” and “Build to Target” approaches. Finally, multi objective genetic algorithms are used to computationally support the design and sub-selection of the preferred pathways. The overarching framework is exemplified by means of two case studies. They are both focused on flood management; however they differ in size and geographical location.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Babovic, V |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | flexibility; genetic algorithms; real options; uncertainty; water resource; decision making; case studies |
| Index terms: | methodology, decision-making, genetic algorithm, real option, case study, infrastructure investment, adaptation, water resource |
| Subjects: | economic analysis, user focus, algorithms, research methods, data collection methods, environmental engineering, decision analysis |
| Topics: | Research Practice, Business Strategy, Digital Applications, Design Practice, Sustainability, Procurement, Risk Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 4 PCTE |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here