Gerstenberger, A J (2021) Modeling the likelihood of construction incidents using public data. EdD thesis, Teachers College, Columbia University, USA.
Abstract
There has been an upward trend of construction injuries and fatalities in the recent decade. Regulatory agencies, such as the NYC Department of Buildings, exist to create and modify construction safety laws, review construction projects, and enforce these laws through site inspections, and often make the data they collect available to the public. However, there is a lack of predictive modeling and a lack of research regarding how to make a proactive prediction of potential injuries and fatalities on construction sites. This study uses public data to predict future construction incidents using leading indicators from information gathered from the NYC permits-issued and complaints-received databases. Results indicate that it is possible to predict future construction incidents over multiple forecast windows using a logistic regression and zero-inflated Poisson model. While previous site incidents alone are significant in predicting future incidents, adding permit and complaint related information increased the true positive rate and decreased the false-negative rate.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Corter, J and Keller, B |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction project; construction safety; construction site; safety |
| Index terms: | construction safety, construction project, window, complaint, construction site, regulatory agency, predictive modelling, injury, modelling, fatalities, database, inspection, construction incident, logistic regression |
| Subjects: | work location, prediction and forecasting, health conditions and diseases, data management, conflict resolution, statistical analysis, environmental health, administrative law, health risk and incident analysis, analytical methods, quality assurance, architectural elements, production management |
| Topics: | Quality Management, Legal Issues, Engineering Principles, Project Management, Health and Safety, Sustainability, Digital Applications, Design Practice, Site Management, Research Practice, Stakeholder Management |
| Descriptive scope: | 3 PCA |
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