Godawatte, G A G R (2021) Understanding the cost overrun causation in construction megaprojects: a grounded systems thinking approach. PhD thesis, Heriot-Watt University, UK.
Abstract
Research background: The problem of cost overruns in construction megaprojects is a 'complex problem'. Although a considerable amount of research has been conducted to identify the isolated factors causing cost overruns in megaprojects, there is a lack of holistic understanding of the complex causal interrelationships between the causes of cost overruns. Therefore, to fulfil this research gap, adding a novel contribution to the existing body of knowledge, adopting systems thinking approach, this thesis aims to holistically examine and understand the cost overrun causation in construction megaprojects and develop a model/substantive theory that represents the complex problem of cost overruns in construction megaprojects. Research methodology and design: The thesis adopted a qualitative research methodology based on a case study research design. California High-Speed Rail project was selected as the case study and data were collected from a range of sources. Data were analysed using grounded theory method and systems thinking approach was used to develop the model (systems map). Seven (07) theoretical propositions that emerged from the data analysis were developed to explain the drivers of each systems map and their cause and effect relationships. The developed model/substantive theory and the underpinning propositions were validated using a two-round modified Delphi survey. Important research findings: The holistic examination of the complex problem of cost overruns revealed that the project cost overruns were an emergent 'symptom' caused by multiple interrelated causes and events occurring at different levels and phases of the project thus cannot be attributed to one single cause. Further to the current academic explanations on cost overruns in the project management literature, findings of the research revealed that that ignorance, impulsive decision-making, immature project organisation, and political pressures collectively led to initiating the project with unrealistic cost and schedule estimates and an undefined scope. Scope creep, inflation, community pressure, lawsuits, and multiple delays were collectively responsible for cost overruns during the execution phase. Contribution to knowledge: Using systems thinking approach, this thesis holistically examined the cause and effect relationships between the drivers of cost overruns in megaprojects by developing a model/substantive theory (systems map) of cost overrun causation. The developed systems map could be used as a tool for strategic decision-making in megaprojects to understand how cost overruns emerge as a result of multiple interrelated causes and events occurring at different levels and phases of the project.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Oyegoke, A and Ogunlana, S |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | grounded theory; systems thinking; inflation; project cost; project organisation; case study; qualitative research; cost overrun; megaproject |
| Index terms: | estimate, project management, scope creep, research methodology, research design, grounded theory, cost overrun, case study, Delphi survey, body of knowledge, railway construction, megaproject, qualitative research, decision-making, methodology, inflation, project cost, overrun, project organization, data analysis, systems thinking |
| Subjects: | scope management, economic analysis, strategic project management, analytical methods, knowledge management, organizational theory, research methods, theoretical framing, research design and methodology, data collection methods, financial and cost management, data analysis and analytics, project management theory and practice, civil engineering, economics, decision analysis, project controls |
| Topics: | Engineering Principles, Project Management, Risk Management, Time Control, Cost Management, Business Strategy, Information Management, Research Practice |
| Descriptive scope: | 5 PCTEA |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here