Taku, A M (2021) Predicting modular efficiency in oil and gas capital projects using multi-criteria decision analysis. DEng thesis, George Washington University, USA.
Abstract
The popularity of modularization as a strategy for capital projects in the engineering procurement and construction (EPC) industry is on the rise. Industry research has asserted that reducing the construction activities on the construction site reduces the overall project schedule and cost, thereby making modularization more cost and schedule efficient than nonmodular approaches. However, current literature is divided on the cost- and schedule-reducing effects of modular construction strategies. Primarily, this Praxis examines the efficiency and percentage differences between costs and schedules of Modular and Nonmodular approaches using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods. Then, the Praxis presents a predictive efficiency model to improve the benefits of using a modular strategy. The model is built from domain expert knowledge on modular critical success factors using Evidential Reasoning (ER). Critical success factors for modularity are identified and divided into four domains: Engineering, Supply Chain and Logistics, Modular Contractors, and Owner’s Involvement. The model aims to aid project stakeholders to better understand and manage the trade-offs between four influential project management domains, thereby enhancing the planning stages of modular projects. Sensitivity analysis techniques were used to identify the points where outcome probabilities are subject to change given different criteria. Finally, the research methodology was validated using a confusion matrix and ROC methods. Results indicated the model improved the prediction ability of modular projects by at least 10%.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Doctoral) |
|---|---|
| Thesis advisor: | Eveleigh Aristos, T D |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | construction activities; reasoning; construction site; logistics; modular construction; decision analysis; project stakeholder; stakeholder; critical success factor |
| Index terms: | praxis, multi-criteria decision analysis, oil and gas, project management, capital project, modularization, research methodology, decision analysis, owner, construction activity, efficiency, critical success factor, modular construction, project stakeholder, modularity, strategy, construction site, reasoning, sensitivity analysis |
| Subjects: | reflexivity, cognitive psychology, building construction, environmental hazards, strategic project management, construction operations, performance management, management, project management theory and practice, sociology, decision analysis, industry analysis, design flexibility, research design and methodology, control systems, work location |
| Topics: | Quality Management, Project Management, Risk Management, Sustainability, Design Practice, Site Management, Business Strategy, Research Practice, Stakeholder Management, Construction Technology |
| Descriptive scope: | 2 PC |
N.B. Descriptive scope is a count of how many of the five facets of empirical research are indicated by the words used in title, abstract and keywords. It is not intended as a judgement on the research; merely a count of the kind of word we would expect to indicate Phenomenon, Concepts, Theoretical framing, Empirical techniques, Analytical techniques. If all five are present, then a code of “5 PCTEA” will indicate this. If you feel the coding for this record is questionable, we welcome discussion around the terms we matched or the way we categorized them. The facet you would expect may not be coded, or a facet may be coded inappropriately. This can also bear on a larger question, of which facets should be treated as defining in construction management research. Please get in touch, and we will look at it. More details here